AB  - 
The Hubbert theory of oil depletion, which states that oil production in large regions follows a bell-shaped curve over time, has been cited as a method to predict the future of global oil production. However, the assumptions of the Hubbert method have never been rigorously tested with a large, publicly available data set. In this paper, three assumptions of the modern Hubbert theory are tested using data from 139 oil producing regions. These regions are sub-national (United States state-level, United States regional-level), national, and multi-national (subcontinental and continental) in scale. We test the assumption that oil production follows a bell-shaped curve by generating best-fitting curves for each region using six models and comparing the quality of fit across models. We also test the assumptions that production over time in a region tends to be symmetric, and that production is more bell-shaped in larger regions than in smaller regions.
ER  - 
TY  - JOURNAL
T1  - Testing Hubbert
JO  - Energy Policy
VL  - 35
IS  - 5
SP  - 3074
EP  - 3088
PY  - 2007/5//
T2  - 
AU  - Brandt, Adam R.
SN  - 0301-4215
M3  - doi: DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.11.004
UR  - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4MMP2SJ-1/2/d167ae7600d46f4577c04b3cac79c77d
KW  - Petroleum
KW  - Hubbert theory
KW  - Oil depletion